Category: Investment planning

Sentiment when it comes to the stock market is like a disease. Once fear sets in the contagion spreads very quickly as we have seen over the past couple of weeks. I could not pick up a paper over the weekend without reading about how much of a mess we are in particularly from some of the broad sheet economists.

Although global stock markets are at 2 year lows, there are signals out there that also suggest that things are not as bad as we are made to believe. I thought I would list a few facts that I came across over the weekend alone:

• Apple has more cash available than the US Government.

• Collectively Greece, Portugal and Ireland only make up 7.4% of European GDP. Having to write off half of their debts would have less of an impact on economic growth than the tsunami reconstruction spending in Japan.

• About 78 percent of companies in the benchmark S&P 500 index that have reported second-quarter (2011) earnings have beaten Wall Street expectations.

• Since 1928, missing just the 20 best market days cuts total returns in half. Moreover, every one of those best days occurred during periods of market chaos – all within days of some of the market’s worst sessions.

Couple some of these facts with the opinions of renowned investors Warren Buffet and Anthony Bolton who currently see the market as a buying opportunity and it is easy to see why many of the fund managers we work with believe that there are strong investment opportunities in the current market.

Warren Buffet – “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful” would have made you a successful investor like Mr Buffet himself, the world’s 3rd richest man.

Although there are obviously strong headwinds at present such as the US rating, Chinese inflation and the Eurozone (which the media remind us about on a daily if not hourly basis), it is also important to stress that investing is for the long term. It is traders who lose money in times such as these, not investors. Being patient, choosing careful investment opportunities and actively managing client’s money will continue to be the approach that we believe adds value to our clients.

Which takes us to the title of this blog, a famous poem by Rudyard Kipling. Maybe Kipling was a long term investor!

categories Posted in: Investment planning

I recently completed a client review in which I was able to give the client the good news that their bespoke equity portfolio which targets “high growth small cap companies” had returned a staggering 70% growth in the last 12 months.

I have to stress that the aim of this type of portfolio is to “shoot high” and the returns do not come without an element of risk. We dub this type of portfolio as ‘adventurous stock’ and it has paid dividends for the clients who have been able to take this level of risk with their capital.

It’s not an investment option I would present to all our clients, as it’s only really advisable for those who can set aside £100,000 and it will only ever represent a maximum of 10% of investable assets held with Xentum. However, it is important that we are able to offer the client something different to many of the plain vanilla offerings from our competitors. We are always attempting to add value to our client’s financial position and this type of portfolio along with other investment opportunities we are able to offer (such as the recent commercial property deal) are important to high net worth investors, particularly when cash and the stock market are trading sideways.

Coupled with these attractive investments it’s also important to keep sight of tax planning issues, which is what our in house chartered financial planning team is adept at. Equally, it would be wrong to ‘put all your eggs in one basket’ and a potential golden egg such as this should of course be part of an overall investment strategy to meet the client’s objectives.

Despite all the doom and gloom and sense of foreboding within the Eurozone and the US, this example really illustrates that there are still gains to make within turbulent times.

If you would like to know more or to see if this solution is appropriate for your own situation then please do not hesitate to contact me.

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Peter Botham is chief investment officer at Brown Shipley and has extensive investment knowledge. We have invited Peter again to give us his update on the economic outlook.

“A lot of effort for little return” is doubtless a conclusion that many investors will have arrived at. Since the start of this year markets of all sorts have made little headway, with the FTSE All-share index providing a total return of just 2.4%, most other developed equity markets producing similar returns whilst the Emerging Markets index provided a negative return of 2.1%. Bonds have struggled to provide investors with a return much above zero and, with cash yielding next to nothing, global investors have discovered that the real earning power of their money is being steadily eroded by inflation. It is a stark commentary on the fate of the Pound that one of the few bright spots of the past six months for UK investors has been the impact that a stronger Euro has had on European investments.

But it is Peripheral Europe, and particularly Greece that has provided the biggest cause for worry in recent months. Any thoughts that last year’s rescue was an end to the story have been laid bare by the latest need for an urgent injection of finance as the whole world can see that Greece is bankrupt. We can curse those Eurocrats who turned a blind eye to the clear failings of Greek finances when the country was admitted to the Euro, but it will make no difference to the crisis that we now face. Only the European Central Bank can fail to conclude that Greece is now an economic black hole, as they struggle valiantly through the dictionary to find a word other than ‘default’ for the inability to pay the bills. Sadly, this dark cloud will not move away in the near future. We have another year of this ahead of us before a solution can be found either to evicting Greece from the Euro or camouflaging its debts without bringing down the European banking system once more. In the meantime, regulators and Central Banks are using the time to strengthen banks’ defences against just such a storm.

With banks unable to reflate the economy through lending, it has been left to the Bank of England and the U.S. Treasury to use a form of credit known as ‘quantitative easing’ to keep the wheels in motion. Nobody can conclusively prove what would have happened if such a process had not been put in place but we can see that as this strategy draws to a close, economic growth is still well below the long term average. The economies in the USA, and particularly in the UK, are not showing the kind of strength which is the norm when climbing out of a recession.

Fortunately, Emerging Markets are acting as a global stimulus, with China still very much the new locomotive.

However, it would be wrong to conclude that these areas must therefore have rewarded investors, since fears of inflation in China would lead to a heavily applied brake to their economy have eroded confidence. Whilst we may have some reservations, our view is that the outlook is still a positive one for China and, by extension, for the rest of the world as well. The recent fall in the price of oil will have helped to calm inflation, as will the sharp sell-off in many arable foodstuffs. The latest indications are that Chinese growth may have slowed down, but at roughly 6% per annum it is still at a level which the ‘old world’ can only dream of.

With this subdued economic background, we believe that returns to investors will stay in single figures for some time to come. With cash rates at negligible levels, and interest rates only able to go sideways at best, bond investors will have to live off their income as capital growth will be scarce. Thus, almost by elimination we must look to equities for a rise in the value of the portfolio. The good news is that when compared to valuations over the past fifty years or so, the asset class does indeed look attractive. Not only are we getting a yield that is equivalent to that of a government bond but, with companies sitting on piles of cash, there is also the scope for above inflation increases in the level of dividend payments.

The Greek Tragedy may play out for some while yet, with the result that volatility will be a permanent feature, but as we move to the final quarter of the year it is likely that stronger corporate earnings and low valuations will realise our expectation for the year overall of a 10% return from equities – which has the benefit to UK investors of providing a gain in excess of persistently high inflation.

categories Posted in: Investment planning

blog_image_placeholderThere is a new movement within the financial services industry which is currently gathering momentum. Come to the fore “Passive investing.” In basic terms, passive investing is tracking some form of index (there are thousands to choose from).

The momentum behind passives has primarily come from the emergence of ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). I will not bore you with the finer details but ETFs are similar to index trackers but trade live on stock exchanges.

ETFs have hit the market with a bang and have increased dramatically the choice for an investor. When it comes to ETFS, we are spoilt for choice. You can buy a FTSE 100 ETF or if you are feeling a little bit more adventurous you can even buy an ETF which tracks the price of coffee these days. With the emergence of ETFs has come the argument that says “why would you bother with active fund managers when you can just buy the market cheaper.”

One of the arguments for passive investing is the cost of active management. The cost of tracking an index is lower than an active fund (by around 0.8-1.2% per annum in most cases). This is of course due to the fact you do not have the costs of the fund managers, analysts and any other costs associated with running an active fund. The fund managers will argue that you are buying expertise whilst the passive crowd would argue that the cost of active fund managers negates returns over the long term and a fair percentage of active fund managers do not outperform anyway. I would tend to agree with both sides of the arguments and argue why can’t you use both tools to add value to a client’s portfolio?

At Xentum, many of our client portfolios include passive investments but only in association with carefully selected active funds. It is clear that holding pure passive investments can bring timing and volatility risks right to the forefront, however passives can prove valuable in areas where it is hard to find a fund manager with a strong track record or a particular theme that can add value. A great example of this is that one of the fund managers we use recently sold an agricultural ETF which was an investment play on food prices.

We believe that a combination of both actives and passives is a sensible strategy. This approach can keep a portfolio more cost effective than a truly active one whilst also giving the portfolio a strong chance of adding value to the client. The figures often do the talking with our clients, and our clients’ portfolios keep outperforming their benchmarks so there must be something right in what we do.

Ps. As a side issue, if you are investing in ETFs, make sure you are actually buying an index tracker rather than a leveraged derivative as these are becoming more popular but carry with them a huge level of risk.

categories Posted in: Investment planning

kate-006Since my last blog, I have been fairly busy juggling between my role at Xentum and lecturing at the College of Law. Our new term started in early September and with the arrival of over 500 students, the past six weeks have absolutely flown by. Thankfully, I am currently enjoying a few days off over half term to catch up. Whilst having two different jobs can be challenging at times, they actually complement each other very well. As Company Secretary at Xentum, I get to deal with a variety of legal and non-legal issues and as we continually grow and adapt, the role is always changing and no day is ever the same. This gives me a real insight into the issues which face developing businesses and this experience is useful for lecturing in business law. Every so often, an opportunity comes along to draw both roles together and develop links between the legal and financial sector. I have recently seized one such opportunity and with the help of investment manager, Quilter and the College of Law launched a Share Race game for our students.

After a few months in the planning, we launched it last week and I am very excited to see how it develops over the coming months. The race has been designed to challenge the students – not only will they have to learn and understand about the financial world but they will also have their presentation and interviewing skills tested by the professional investment panel. The Game will run for six months during which teams of students will manage virtual portfolios of £100,000 by actively trading shares from the FTSE 100. The teams’ performance and investment decisions will be scrutinised by a professional investment panel, made up of representatives from Xentum and Quilter. To ensure a realistic challenge, the investment panel will not only be looking for teams to maximise the value of their portfolios, they will also reward the team which demonstrates the best investment discipline.

We hope that the Race will give students a rare opportunity to gain a genuine and realistic insight into the financial markets and the factors which influence share values and investment decisions. At various stages throughout the race, the investment panel will educate the students on some of the key concepts behind investment decisions. This will help the students to understand the investment rationale behind shares and the role of equities within a broader personal financial planning strategy.

Our approach to personal financial planning at Xentum has always been one of teamwork and the financial strategies that we put in place are constructed in collaboration with our clients’ lawyers and accountants. The Share Race therefore gives us a great opportunity to work with the future generation of lawyers at the College of Law and see how they respond to the challenges we set. We hope the experience will help them to appreciate the value of a working within a professional multi-disciplinary team for their clients and allow them to start developing links in the financial world. You never know, one or two of them may end up joining us one day!

David GrisedaleOne measure that the Coalition Government chose not to repeal in the Emergency Budget was the Labour Government’s decision to reduce the personal allowance of every individual with a net adjusted income above £100,000 by £1 for every £2 of income above £100,000, with effect from 6 April 2010.

Net adjusted income in this instance is the total income on which an individual is liable to tax minus any gross personal pension contributions that they make and/or any third party pension contributions that they receive (excluding employer contributions).

Individuals will lose their personal allowance altogether if their income exceeds £112,950.

Individuals whose income falls between £100,000 and the income figure mentioned above will still receive a personal allowance but it will be a reduced amount.

Losing some or all of your personal allowance will increase your tax liability and thus reduce your net income. Some of you who are reading this now may earn above £100,000 and so will have received a new tax code earlier this year. If you did not understand the significance of this at the time then I hope that this blog clarifies the current situation.

For example, in the case of a 50 year old male with a net adjusted income of £112,950, the effective marginal rate of income tax on the income above £100,000 is 60%.

The marginal rate of tax in this example is greater than 40% because the first £6,475 of income that would not have been taxed (as it fell within the personal allowance) will now be taxed at 20% and the £6,475 previously just below the higher rate tax threshold (which would have been taxed at 20%) will now be taxed at 40%.

One solution to this problem is to pay a personal pension contribution and if this reduces your net adjusted income below the £100,000 threshold, then you will regain your personal allowance for this tax year and thus pay less tax.

Please note that care must be taken to avoid falling foul of the anti-forestalling legislation. You must also be under 75 and have relevant earnings to justify the pension contribution. Non-pension solutions to this problem include investing in an Enterprise Investment Scheme or a Venture Capital Trust as they also provide tax relief.

Given the complexity of this issue and the fact that the Coalition Government has yet to decide on the alternative measures it intends to introduce to restrict pension tax relief from 6 April 2011, it is vitally important that independent financial advice should be sought before taking any further action.

dominic-laptop-09-new-edit1News of law firm Halliwells going into administration has sent shock waves through the Manchester business scene, though if you’re to read the various online postings speculation has been rife for some time.

It’s monolithic office in Spinningfields is a statement of indestructible corporate power completely at odds with its shaky foundations and it really serves as a reminder that not one organisation is immune to the economic tidal wave.

Whether you’re managing a business or your own finances, diversification is key or to put it quite simply – ‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket’. I’ve encountered several potential clients who have lost considerable chunks of their wealth by insisting they don’t diversify their share portfolio. Whether it’s been shares in RBS or Marks & Spencer sums as much as two million have been lost through loyalty to the brand and reluctance to change.

By creating a varied portfolio made up of cash, equities, gilts, property with a balance of high and low risk
you’re not totally reliant on one aspect ‘coming good’ – if one component falls the whole thing won’t collapse. The same principle applies to business.

Today’s Private Client Discussion Group presentation was popular for that very reason. Christopher Taylor from Blue Sky Asset Management gave an enlightened presentation on structured products. Investors and wealth managers alike are getting excited by some of the products out there as they give attractive returns but with an element of protection.

Just one last word to drive the message hard on diversification – who would have thought oil giant BP’s shares would have plummeted to a 14 year low to below £3 and that the international business would be in freefall? The Gulf of Mexico disaster wasn’t on anybody’s radar and the financial repercussions for millions is extremely unpalatable.

If you haven’t already done so, start thinking about the worse case scenario in terms of your investments it could be the most priceless thing you’ve done all day.

There’s a more detailed piece on structured products in the news section. Feel free to call us with any questions.

categories Posted in: Investment planning

dominic-laptop-09-new-edit1It has been over 20 years since I have had to burn the midnight oil to cram in last minute exam revision and experience the anxiety of knowing you’re not fully prepared for the onslaught of exams. For anyone remotely studious – and even if you weren’t, they were stomach knotting days. I don’t envy teenagers who are in the midst of their exams and I certainly don’t envy parents who are feeling more than a little queasy at the thought of the eye watering higher education costs which lie ahead.

Last week alone the Russell Group who represents 20 leading universities submitted proposals to scrap the £3,225 cap on tuition fees in favour of a system of unregulated charges which suggested annual fees could soon reach as high as £9,000. One proposal said that wealthier students would be exempt from student loans and would have to take out more expensive bank loans – secured against their parent’s homes.

I did a quick straw poll in the office and asked colleagues with primary school age and teenage children if they’d made any kind of financial provision for their children’s higher education costs. All said they were hopeful that their off spring would go to university but admitted they’d set aside no investments specifically to cover further education costs. When I questioned why, it was simply a case of having more pressing financial priorities and they were hopeful policies taken out by grandparents when their children were born would ‘come good’. Though they admitted it would probably only cover the first year’s fees (as they currently stand) and in reality this sum of money would probably go towards their child’s first car.

Regardless of financial status times are tough; with unprecedented volatility in the market and a budget looming which I am sure will squeeze us all one way or another and not just for the short term. I can’t stress enough that it’s never too late to start planning – even if it’s a relatively small amount you set aside during lean times, you’ll see the fiscal benefit in the long run.

Here are some investment options which would serve the purpose well:

• Utilise tax free Child Trust Funds (CTF) – the investment as opposed to cash saving. The maximum
annual investment is £1,200 per child.
• For children born before the date of the CTF launch – set up a tax free ISA and designate it for your
child’s education.
• Ask your financial planner about trust funds.
• A good long term strategy is to take advantage of the low stock market and invest in shares.
• Property investment in a university town/city

Please do your homework and mention it to your financial adviser at your next meeting.

categories Posted in: Investment planning

blog_image_placeholderLast week I attended a very interesting event aimed at investors placing their hard earned cash in early stage companies. The first thing that suddenly comes to mind when talking about this kind of investment is “Dragons Den.” The organisation arranging the night was Envestors and one of the entrepreneurs introducing the companies looking for capital was Imran Hakim, the founder and managing director of iteddy and a real Dragons Den success story.

Envestors introduced six companies on the night, each with 7-8 minutes to present to a room of about 70 and put their case forward to why they think that you should invest in their company. On the night there was a vast array of different proposals including a company who specialised in posture improving car seats, a telecommunications company that allows user to route their mobile phone calls through a landline and even a feature movie. After the presentation, there would be a few minutes for questions from the audience. More questions could be asked in person at the end and investors were invited to setup personal meetings to delve into the companies in more detail.

From mine and Xentum’s perspective, it was interesting to see a different type of investment to those that we usually recommend and some of the companies also qualify for the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS), which offers significant tax breaks. There is no way in getting around the fact that these companies are off the scale when it comes to risk but with the high risk comes a potential for considerable returns if the company becomes a success.

The most interesting part of the proposals is that the companies were not only looking for capital, but some of the companies were also looking for input and knowledge of running a successful company, a fact that I am sure would appeal to any successful entrepreneurs.

As a concluding note it was also nice to see some entrepreneurial spirit in what has been a tough few years. It is companies like the ones I saw last week that will help to lead the recovery. If you think that this is a type of investment that you would be interested in or would like to attend a similar event then you can find more information at http://www.envestors.co.uk.

copy-of-verre-de-vin-2Those of you who are avid readers of the money sections within the weekend papers will have recently come across a number of investment gurus who mention fine wine as a serious investment.  Up until recently it was an asset class that I am sad to say, Xentum didn’t take seriously.  However our view has now changed and fine wine is not to be ignored as a long term investment, particularly as an alternative to traditional asset classes such as equities, property, fixed interest and cash.

In light of this emerging story, I am proud to say that we have a guest blogger today who is an expert in fine wine and particularly the Bordeaux region.  I would therefore like to introduce Nick Stephens, managing director of the well respected company “interest in wine”.  Nick will talk you through why he thinks fine wine is an investment proposition to be taken seriously. 

Nick:  Thanks Dominic.

Why Invest in Wine?

What would you say if you were asked what the best investment of the decade was?  Would be surprised to know that it was fine wine?  If you have checked the press recently you will have noted the headlines that a case of 1982 Lafite Rothschild was the best performing asset of the last decade, beating equities, houses, oil, stamps and fine art.  A 12-bottle case of 1982 Lafite has increased in price by 857% over the last ten years, from £2,613 to £25,000. Wine has also outperformed gold since reliable monthly records began in 1993 with fine wine prices rising more than ten fold compared to the price of gold which has only doubled in price over the same period.

Changing Times

Until recently fine wine has only been seen as an alternative investment.  Times are changing.  To quote Peter Drucker “In turbulent times it’s not the turbulence we should worry about it’s using yesterday’s logic”. 

Time to Invest in Wine?

The economic case for investing in fine wine is compelling: supply is static; fine wine cannot be replenished.   Demand far outstrips supply.  The châteaux can not expand their vineyards to increase production as land is scarce, yields at harvest are kept low to ensure quality, weather impacts on production and every bottle opened is a bottle lost to bidders.  Add to this rising demand from new markets, such as Asia, and the case for rising prices is a powerful one. Wine has also been a useful tool for portfolio diversification with a history of high returns, low volatility and negligible correlation to mainstream assets.

It is often said that the market for wines is the last to feel the impact of any economic upheaval and the first to show recovery. In the wake of the financial meltdown wine has started to figure more prominently in investment portfolios and is no longer regarded a niche market today as it was a few years ago. Over the past 2 decades wine has shown consistent returns and is continuing to out perform the FTSE 100. According to Liv-ex (the Fine Wine Index) in the past 5 years the index has increased 133%, a performance bettered by none of the major share indices or gold.

Expanding Markets

Asia

So what is keeping the fine wine market buoyant? In short, Asia – particularly Hong Kong and China. Hong Kong has established itself as the world’s second largest market (behind New York) for the sales of fine wines since all wine duties were abolished early in 2008.   Hong Kong is increasingly the place to buy (and sell) expensive wine.

Last year, Hong Kong sold £41 million worth of wine in 14 auctions. The city’s 2009 imports of the beverage rose 41% to £331 million.

Between 2004 and 2008, Chinese wine consumption grew by nearly 80%, according to the International Wine and Spirits Record survey conducted for Vinexpo, the world’s leading wine fair. The survey projected that over a 10-year period from 2004-2013, the volume of wine consumed in China will have soared by 250%.

China has an estimated 34m upper-middle class consumers – a figure that should rise to 82m by 2025.  Given that the Chinese tend to drink their bottles of Lafite Rothschild rather than cellar them supply is further constricted.

Hong Kong and China are not the only emerging markets for fine wines in the East – there is a growing level of interest by Japanese, Korean and Filipino investors in a market that has historically been reserved for European and US knowledgeable investors.   The Philippines – the third largest wine drinking nation in Asia – has launched the world’s second largest multi-million dollar wine storage warehouse, and the wine investment market has taken off.

India

India has emerged as one of the fastest growing markets for wine. Despite the country’s vast population of over 1.1 billion, the consumption of wine remains extremely low, indicating huge potential for growth in the coming years.

Various factors such as favourable government policies, increasing disposable income, amplified wine marketing and influence of western culture are helping to drive India’s wine consumption. The Indian Wine Industry Forecast projects that wine consumption in India is expected to grow by 25-30% annually between 2009 and 2012.

Traditional

Closer to home Liv-ex (the Fine Wine Exchange) has been named one of the UK’s fastest growing companies. It is the UK’s 59th fastest-growing private company in the 2009 edition of the Sunday Times Fast Track 100. The survey, now in its 13th year, ranks non-listed UK companies by their compound annual sales growth over a three year period (in most cases up to Dec 2008). Liv-ex achieved its ranking by recording per annum growth of 76%.

This is the second time in three years that Liv-ex has appeared in the top 100, with this year’s position 40 places higher than in 2007. With some 260 merchants in 22 countries, sales have grown from £5m in 2005 to £27.1m in 2008. 

Time for a change?

There are the 3 traditional ways of investing in wine:

a)  Use a wine merchant and buy it yourself
b)  Buy through a Wine Merchant with a Managed Cellar Plan
c)  Invest in a Wine Fund

 These 3 ways of investing in wine all have advantages but the main disadvantage is one of cost.

A Private Individual buying via a Wine Merchant has to pay margins between 8-35%.  Managed Cellar Plans margins of 30% plus 10% fee for selling the wines plus storage charges.

Wine Funds normally have a 5% initial charge  plus a 1.5% annual management charge based on valuation 20% term end bonus plus all out of pocket expenses (in some cases without limitation) and  Introductory fees (IFAs).

“If we keep making the same decision over and over again we should not expect any different results.”  Peter Drucker

The 1855 Club

The 1855 Club offers wine lovers across the globe the opportunity to have a shareholding(s) in a wine company which trades exclusively in Bordeaux Grand Cru Classés. The ethos of The 1855 Club is not only to obtain returns but also to deliver knowledge and enjoyment to those who wish to gain a wider education of the wines of Bordeaux and great cuisine through experiences gained by visiting and staying in the best Châteaux in Bordeaux, attending exquisite dinners, tastings with wine makers, quarterly insider newsletters, limited edition books and even grape picking if that’s what you would like to do!

Tax advantages

There is now a new route into Fine Wine investment which offers qualifying UK tax payers an advantageous and tax efficient opportunity – invest in an EIS company (Enterprise Investment Scheme). An EIS has considerable tax benefits for investors.  I have listed some of these below, just in case you are not familiar with them:

• 20% income tax relief – if held for 3 years. 
• Disposals free of CGT after 3 years
• Qualifies for Business Property Relief after 2 years therefore becoming IHT exempt.

Summary

Although biased towards the UK tax payer, the 1855 club will also suit wine lovers around the world offering a marvellous opportunity to indulge in a favourite hobby, gain more knowledge, have experiences that you can regale to your grand children and be involved in an investment that is quite unique as you can influence the returns you can achieve.

Dominic:  Thank you Nick, that was very interesting.  If you are reading this and you are interested in learning more about how to invest in wine or would simply like more information on what is becoming a very impelling investment story then please contact us.  You can also see Nick’s website at www.interestinwine.co.uk

categories Posted in: Investment planning